U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley, Ranking Member of the Senate Budget Committee, called on June 25 for the Congressional Budget Office to examine how the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act and potentially higher-than-expected interest rates could affect federal debt over the next 30 years.
Merkley asked the nonpartisan agency to update its analysis in light of recent legislative changes. He specifically requested that CBO assess how much federal debt is projected to grow compared with its May 2025 report, which was published before enactment of the Republican-led One Big, Beautiful Bill Act. The senator also asked for projections if interest rates rise by one percentage point above current expectations and remain elevated throughout the three-decade window.
In a letter addressed to CBO Director Phillip Swagel, Merkley wrote, “[The Republican One Big, Beautiful Bill Act] further worsened the nation’s unsustainable debt trajectory, leading to a future where higher debt and interest payments crowd out economic growth, as well as critical investments in housing, health care, education, and infrastructure.” He added that previous analyses did not account for this legislation’s impact on deficits and debt.
Merkley’s request included several scenarios: updated projections for overall debt growth; an assessment of additional borrowing costs if interest rates are higher than anticipated; and an evaluation of what it would take to stabilize national debt as a share of gross domestic product at current levels. The senator also sought estimates for necessary cuts or revenue increases required to achieve stabilization and asked about potential effects on per capita economic growth.
The Congressional Budget Office previously examined long-term budget outlooks under alternative scenarios but has not yet analyzed these factors following passage of major fiscal legislation.