U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich and eight other senators called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Aug. 5 to address concerns about prediction markets allowing bets on wildfires. The senators, including Jeff Merkley, Alex Padilla, Jeanne Shaheen, Adam Schiff, Jacky Rosen, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ron Wyden, and Amy Klobuchar, urged the CFTC to crack down on these practices due to public safety and insider trading risks.
In a letter addressed to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, the senators wrote, “Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit. There’s also the heightened risk – according to state and local fire officials – that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful. By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading.”
The senators pressed for immediate action from the CFTC to restrict betting on wildfires and implement guardrails that would prevent profiteering as wildfires impact communities across the country. They cited previous warnings from Heinrich regarding dangers posed by prediction markets both nationally and specifically in New Mexico.
Recent reports referenced in their letter highlighted that Polymarket—the largest global prediction market platform—accepted over $1.2 million in bets related to major California wildfires in January 2025, which resulted in significant loss of life and property damage. The letter also mentioned another platform offering simulated wildfire bets with slogans such as “You can’t predict fire, but you can trade on it.”
The senators requested answers from Chair Selig by August 14 regarding whether the CFTC plans rulemaking or enforcement actions against wildfire event contracts offered by U.S.-based or offshore platforms; whether such contracts serve public interest; and if there is existing guidance or planned enforcement related specifically to these types of event contracts.
“As the United States faces yet another record-breaking fire season this year,” they wrote, “the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) cannot allow these prediction markets to offer unrestricted betting on wildfires… The CFTC must lead the charge …and put in place common-sense guardrails.”