The Congressional Record is a unique source of public documentation. It started in 1873, documenting nearly all the major and minor policies being discussed and debated.
“WORLD FOOD SUPPLIES” mentioning the U.S. Dept of Agriculture was published in the Extensions of Remarks section on pages E2260 on Nov. 29, 1995.
The publication is reproduced in full below:
WORLD FOOD SUPPLIES
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HON. LEE H. HAMILTON
of indiana
in the house of representatives
Wednesday, November 29, 1995
Mr. HAMILTION. Mr. Speaker, I would like to insert my Washington Report for Wednesday, November 15, 1995 into the Congressional Record.
Future World Food Supplies
The tightening of world food supplies in recent years has led many people to wonder about the long-term food outlook. Will we be facing an era of major shortages driven by world population growth that will mean sharp price increases for some and food scarcity and famine for others? Or will research advances and improved farm productivity be enough to meet the growing world needs? The long-term predictions have important implications for U.S. food and agricultural policy and for Hoosier farmers.
current supplies
In recent years, world grain supplies have tightened considerably. The world's grain harvest has not increased in any of the last five years, and since 1992 world grain consumption has exceeded production. Grain stocks carried over from one year to the next are at record lows. In the U.S., lower production, strong export demand, and reforms making farm programs more market oriented have meant that this year--for the first time since World War II--there are basically no surplus stocks in government-owned reserves. The tight supplies have led to steep price increases for wheat, rice, and corn.
long-term projections
Some people look at the current tight supplies and see things only getting worse. They believe that world population growth, increasingly scarce water and land resources, and the demand for better diets in developing countries will mean an era of major food scarcity. Others are optimistic. They point to advancing farm technology, unused cropland, and potential to modernize farm production in developing countries. On this view, feeding billions more around the world could easily be done.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released a major study on the outlook for world food supplies that comes down in between these two views. Looking at the next 10 years, the report sees no looming crisis in food supplies. The report expects production to grow at basically the same rate as population, so grain use per person will remain relatively unchanged. World prices for wheat and rice are expected to lag only slightly behind inflation.
Explaining the increased demand, USDA emphasized the importance of world population growth--from 5.5 billion to 6.6 billion over the next decade--as well as efforts by countries like China to improve their diets. Yet world food production is expected to keep pace, more through higher yields than expanded cropland. Crop yields, however, are expected to grow more slowly than in the past because high-yielding rice and wheat varieties have been widely adopted and no similar research advances are anticipated soon.
food shortages
While the USDA report projected adequate global food supplies, it also concluded that there will be major food shortages in some parts of the world. And on that score USDA was not optimistic. Currently some 800 million people--15% of the world's population--have inadequate diets, with many of them suffering from severe malnutrition. The study projected that food aid needs will double over the next decade, even under relatively optimistic assumptions of increased food production in the developing countries. The problem of food shortages is largely financial--the inability of poorer countries to buy adequate food.
The world food situation is like a basket half empty and half full. More people are adequately fed than ever before and much more food is available than in past decades. At the same time, there are still more hungry people in the world than ever before, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of total world population.
agricultural research
One clear message from the long-term food supply projections is that we need to continue to support agricultural research. The U.S. agricultural research system has been a major reason for the productivity of our farmers, and continued research will be crucial in the years ahead to helping them meet the ever-growing markets for food.
Yet agricultural research faces federal budget cuts. Funding in 1996 will be below this year's level, and Congress will consider various reforms in the months ahead. We need to balance the budget, but deep cuts in agricultural research would be short-sighted.
farm programs
The increasing world food needs also mean that we should reform current federal farm programs to open up more farmland to production. Currently some 15 percent of U.S. cropland is being idled through federal commodity programs designed to help stabilize supplies and through Conservation Reserve programs designed to protect fragile cropland.
Reforms are currently being considered in Congress to reduce government land set-asides, allow farmers to withdraw less-sensitive land from the Conservation Reserve, and allow farmers more planting flexibility to react to world market needs. I support such efforts.
food aid
We also need to improve U.S. food aid programs. since the end of World War II, the U.S. has been the world's bulwark against famine. This year we will provide $1.3 billion in food aid--about 1/10 of 1 percent of the total federal budget. Food aid benefits not just needy people overseas but also U.S. farmers, by providing a market for their current production and by laying the groundwork for future export sales. Of the 50 largest buyers of American farm goods, 43 are countries that formerly received U.S. food aid. Former food aid recipients purchase more than $35 billion in U.S. agricultural products each year. By helping feed the needy we also create major new markets for our exports.
But food aid programs also face budget cuts, and it is clear that we will have to do more with less. That's why recent Clinton Administration efforts to overhaul and
``reinvent'' food aid programs--better coordinating assistance and focusing much more on measuring and managing for results--are a step in the right direction.
conclusion
Long-term projections about global food supplies and needs are very tentative, and are highly sensitive to even the smallest changes in assumptions. The latest projections are generally reassuring for those of us in the U.S., but they also indicate the need for a long-term view in our food and agricultural policies. We must continue to invest in the ability of U.S. farmers to meet the needs of global markets.
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