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“THE BEST GUESS U.S. CENSUS” mentioning the U.S. Dept. of Commerce was published in the Extensions of Remarks section on pages E1505 on July 24, 1997.
The publication is reproduced in full below:
THE BEST GUESS U.S. CENSUS
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HON. NEWT GINGRICH
of georgia
in the house of representatives
Thursday, July 24, 1997
Mr. GINGRICH. Mr. Speaker, today I submit to the Congressional Record an important column on the topic of the 2000 census by Matthew J. Glavin, president of Southeastern Legal Foundation in Atlanta. Published in the July 15, 1997 edition of the Washington Times, Mr. Glavin's column is entitled, ``The Best Guess U.S. Census?'' Mr. Glavin points out that while Congress has delegated to the Commerce Department the census-taking responsibility, we have not given away the constitutional mandate that the census be an actual enumeration.
In addition to being inconsistent with the Constitution, statistical sampling techniques are open to partisan political manipulation of whichever administration is in charge of the Commerce Department at the time. We must not go down that path. I strongly commend Mr. Glavin's column to all my colleagues.
The Best-Guess U.S. Census?
(By Matthew J. Glavin)
The 19th century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli warned, ``There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics.'' Last month, Congress heeded the warning. One of the amendments to the Disaster Relief bill passed by Congress was a requirement that the Census Bureau suspend its plans to use statistical sampling and adjustment in the 2000 Census. It was a simple requirement, really--count actual people; don't fudge the numbers.
President Clinton, deriding the bill as a ``political wish list,`` vetoed the package. Promising instead to ``rectify'' perceived inaccuracies among minorities in past Census-taking, the president's plan to use statistical sampling in the next Census flies in the face of one of the clearest mandates in our Constitution.
Article 1, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution calls for the ten-year national census and demands an ``actual Enumeration.'' The purpose was to ensure that all American citizens are properly represented by district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The Founders, aware of the keen competition among the states for power in the nation's Capital, required the ``actual enumeration'' of our shifting population to guarantee that no group, state or special interest could gain an undemocratic advantage. The Constitution delegated the power to conduct the Census to Congress, which has this year made clear its intent.
Now, the President and his Commerce secretary, William Daley, who supervises the Census Bureau, have proposed a so-called ``dual estimation system'' (DES) to redress perceived undercounting of certain minority groups--by some accounts as high as 4.8 percent in the black community. Under this system, the Bureau would make its ``best guess'' as to where the population count was imagined to be low, add a magical percentage to the head count for that area, and apply those statistical percentages to similar areas across the nation.
In the 1990 census, for example, the Census-takers' ``best guess'' demographic group was black women homeowners in their 20's in Chicago and Detroit. Under the Clinton/Daley DES program for the 2000 Census, this demographic group would be statistically ``puffed,'' and the estimated figures would be applied to all similar urban areas across the nation. In addition to the fact that the estimates may not reflect real population figures, statistical sampling will unfairly lump individuals into stereotypical groups.
Presto, chango, ``actual'' Census figures are gone, replaced by the best guess of a bureaucrat in the Clinton Commerce Department. Still more unsettling is the fact that a
``statistically estimated'' Census is subject to the political agenda of the executive in power. The potential impact on congressional districts, particularly in those states containing large urban centers, is staggering.
The ``no-statistics'' rule vetoed by the president should be enforced. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill recognize that the power to call for a ten-year Census comes to them directly from the Constitution. While Congress has properly delegated the Census-taking responsibility to the Commerce Department, it has not given away, and indeed could not give away, the constitutional requirement that the census be an ``actual enumeration.'' That requirement still applies no matter what administration implements the Census.
The Clinton administration's ``best guess'' plan lacks compassion, offers a poor solution to a real problem, and flies in the face of a clear constitutional mandate. Should the 2000 Census be comprehensive and accurate? Of course. Will it reflect the true population of our nation? By law, it must. ``Actual'' versus ``estimated'' enumeration is a distinction with significant legal consequences. As required by the Constitution, Congress has made clear its intent.
It may fall to the third branch of American government, our courts, to decide the fate of the Clinton ``best guess'' census plan. The politicization of the national census must be avoided. Real justice, and our Constitution, demand it.
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