Guest blog post by Michael F Molnar Director, Advanced Manufacturing Office, NIST
The power and performance of the computer chip have improved like clockwork for half a century, as the number of transistors squeezed on a slice of silicon has doubled about every two years. Thanks to the U.S.-led semiconductor industry's almost formulaic progress, innovation has flourished for decades, enabling a steady stream of ever-more-powerful electronic products and capabilities.
But this reliable rate of progress-set in motion by the 1965 prediction known as Moore's Law-may be nearing its end. With the number of devices on a chip running well into the billions, the semiconductor industry is pushing up against fundamental physical limits.
Up ahead lies a technology transition where market leadership will be up for grabs. New rounds of innovation will be needed to blaze another trail, one that leads to a succession of even more powerful information technologies, themselves sprouting new industries.
Where these industries take root is a matter of great economic importance.
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