The harmful algal bloom (HAB) that forms in western Lake Erie each summer is expected to be smaller than average this year, according to scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and their research partners.
This summer's HAB is forecast to measure 3.5 on the severity index, compared to 2021's HAB, which measured at 6, NOAA announced June 30. The index is based on the amount of algae in the bloom, according to the announcement, with measurements above 5 signalling more severe HABs.
"Blooms over 7 are particularly severe," NOAA states in the report, "with extensive scum formation and coverage affecting the lake." NOAA reports that the bloom with the highest severity index, 10.5, was in 2015.
HABs in Lake Erie containing blue-green algae, or cyanobacteria, can produce the liver toxic microcystin, which is a known risk to human and wildlife health, the report states. The presence of the toxin can threaten drinking water, close beaches and stop people from enjoying recreational activities at the lake, which hurts local economies, NOAA states.
"Toxic algae affect not only the health of people and marine ecosystems," Nicole LeBoeuf, assistant administrator for NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS), said in the report, "but also the health and vibrancy of local and regional economies.”
Ten years of studying and forecasting HABs has lead to a larger understanding of the blooms, such as evidence that big, mid-summer river discharges might have more of an effect on HABs than previously thought, according to Richard Stumpf, lead bloom-forecast scientist for NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science.
“They create more uncertainty," Stumpf said, "but our models are improving as a result. We will also have to watch to see if these events become more common in the future.”
Christopher Winslow, director of Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory at Ohio State University, said HAB prediction "is a great example" of how the partnership between NOAA, OSU and Heidelberg Universitycan "bring critical research and expertise to our local coastal communities.”
LeBoeuf compared environmental predictions with weather forecasts, saying they "are an important tool that can empower communities to more effectively prepare for these events, and are a huge part of NOAA’s service to the nation."
