Craters of the Moon National Monument and Preserve, ID -This low-elevation park is warmer and drier than the others, and research models suggest a variety of scenarios for pikas. Because of the isolation of the pika population, low genetic diversity and small area of current distribution, researchers conclude the pika population is vulnerable to extirpation (local extinction).
Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, CO - Changes in precipitation will be important in this cool and arid park. Maintaining connectivity between habitat areas will be an important factor, but pikas are likely to persist in the northern half of the park.
Grand Teton National Park, WY - Because this high-elevation park is so cold and wet, pikas live in warmer and drier areas. Large and well-connected habitat patches are likely to remain into the future, so pika populations are predicted to remain stable or increase.
Lava Beds National Monument, CA - Like Craters of the Moon, this low-elevation park is warm and dry. Surprisingly, models did not provide clear evidence of extirpation as the scientists expected. Inconclusive results may be due in part to the influence of sub-surface microclimates created by lava flows. Continued monitoring will better resolve the question of pika population vulnerability at Lava Beds.
Lassen Volcanic National Park, CA - Although this Cascade Mountains park is comparatively warm and wet, researchers anticipate long-term persistence of pikas here. This may be due in part to increased growing season and availability of forage plants.
Rocky Mountain National Park, CO - Climate models say the predicted higher temperatures here will cause habitat suitability and connectivity to decline. Researchers conclude that pika populations in this park are highly vulnerable to extirpation.
Yellowstone National Park, WY - Like Rocky Mountain, Yellowstone is expected to become warmer and drier. Heat stress is an important factor making the pikas here vulnerable to extirpation. However, the current high genetic diversity in this park's population may increase the species' resiliency to heat stress.
The paper, Habitat Availability and Gene Flow Influence Diverging Local Population Trajectories Under Scenarios of Climate Change: A Place-Based Approach, can be found here.
More information about the Pikas in Peril project, including detailed results for each park, is available on the study website here. For more information about this and other studies being conducted by the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program, visit https://science.nature.nps.gov/im/ or contact Tom Rodhouse by email.
Tags: natural resouces natural resource stewardship and science pika pikas
Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service
