A climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that affects weather worldwide has emerged and is expected to strengthen into the winter.
Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center have said El Niño has arrived, according to a June 8 NOAA news release. El Niño is a natural climate event with warmer-than-average seas surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. It happens on average every two to seven years.
“Depending on its strength, El Niño can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” Michelle L'Heureux, climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center, said in the release. “Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Niño. For example, El Niño could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Niño.”
During the summer, El Niño's influence on the United States is weak, but it becomes more pronounced from late fall to spring, the release reported.
“By winter, there is an 84% chance of greater than a moderate strength El Niño, and a 56% chance of a strong El Niño developing,” the release said. “Typically, moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the fall and winter result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California to along the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.”
El Niño winters more likely result in warmer-than-average temperatures across the northernmost part of the contiguous U.S. along its border with Canada, according to the release.
“The anticipated persistence of El Niño also contributed to the 2023 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlooks issued by NOAA last month (May),” the release said. “El Niño conditions usually help to suppress Atlantic Hurricane activity, while the presence of El Niño typically favors strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basins.”
