The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has launched the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), a new hurricane forecast model that aims to improve accuracy in predicting storm tracks and rapid intensification. HAFS will replace existing models and enhance hurricane forecasting capabilities for the National Weather Service in the United States.
"The quick deployment of HAFS marks a milestone in NOAA's commitment to advancing our hurricane forecasting capabilities, and ensuring continued improvement of services to the American public," said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., according to a July 13 press release by NOAA. "Development, testing and evaluations were jointly carried out between scientists at NOAA Research and the National Weather Service, marking a seamless transition from development to operations.”
According to the press release, the NOAA has launched a new hurricane forecast model called the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). This new model, which began operations on June 27, is aimed at enhancing hurricane forecasting capabilities and improving services to the public.
The experimental version of HAFS, tested from 2019 to 2022, showed a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to existing hurricane models used by NOAA, according to the press release. While HAFS performs similarly to these models in forecasting storm intensity, it excels at predicting rapid intensification of hurricanes. Last year, HAFS accurately forecasted that Hurricane Ian would undergo secondary rapid intensification as it approached southwest Florida after moving off the coast of Cuba.
“With the introduction of the HAFS forecast model into our suite of tropical forecasting tools, our forecasters are better equipped than ever to safeguard lives and property with enhanced accuracy and timely warnings,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, according to the press release. “HAFS is the result of strong collaborative efforts throughout the science community and marks significant progress in hurricane prediction.”
The press release reports that over the next four years, HAFS will undergo major upgrades to further increase forecast accuracy, aiming to reduce forecast errors by nearly half compared to 2017. The new model features five major components, including a high-resolution moving nest that allows zooming in on critical areas of hurricanes to improve wind intensity and rain forecasts.
