In November, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® ticked up to 102.0 (1985=100) from 99.1 in October, halting a three-month downward trend. This significant rise signifies an end to a period of increasing uncertainty among consumers, despite some indicators suggesting that economic troubles could be on the horizon.
According to Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, "November’s increase in consumer confidence was concentrated primarily among householders aged 55 and up; by contrast, confidence among householders aged 35-54 declined slightly. General improvements were seen across the spectrum of income groups surveyed in November. Nonetheless, write-in responses revealed consumers remain preoccupied with rising prices in general, followed by war/conflicts and higher interest rates," Dana Peterson said in the press release.
The recently released report provided additional insights on consumer attitudes towards potential recessions. According to a Conference Board press release published Nov. 28, although the survey revealed a decrease in consumer fears of a recession, approximately two-thirds perceive that one is "somewhat" or "very likely" to occur within 12 months. "This is consistent with the short and shallow recession we anticipate in the first half of 2024," the Conference Board said in the press release.
In addition to these findings, there was also some information on how consumers currently view business and job market conditions. According to the Conference Board press release, the Present Situation Index, which gauges how consumers perceive current business and jobs market conditions, dropped slightly to 138.2 (1985=100) from 138.6 in October. Looking at some of the "Present Situation" results, 19.8% of those surveyed said business conditions were "good," higher than the 18.3% in October, but 19.5% said conditions were "bad," higher than last month's 18.8%. With the job market, 39.3% said jobs were "plentiful," an increase from 37.9% in October, yet 15.4% said jobs were "hard to get," higher than October's 14.1%.
More information on the organization behind these statistics was also provided in their release. According to the Conference Board’s press release, the organization is a non-partisan, non-profit think tank. Its monthly Consumer Confidence Survey® is based on an online sample and is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna.
