In an unprecedented year of global elections, with more than 4 billion people voting across 76 countries amid a contentious election in the United States, one contest that deserves significant attention is that of Mexico.
Among U.S. partners, Mexico’s politics are notably consequential for the United States due to their impact on various aspects of life. Mexico is the top U.S. trading partner, a major energy supplier, a vital component of North American economic competitiveness, and an indispensable partner on migration management. Additionally, it receives over $60 billion annually in remittances from the United States. Approximately 1.6 million Americans reside in Mexico—the largest American expatriate community globally—while the U.S. is home to more than 37 million people of Mexican origin or heritage.
The outcome of Mexico’s largest-ever election, which elected Claudia Sheinbaum as the country’s first female president along with all 128 Senate seats, all 500 Chamber of Deputies seats, nine governors, and numerous local offices across its 32 jurisdictions, holds significance not only for Mexico but also for the United States. The governance approach of newly elected officials will influence whether Mexico consolidates its democracy or reverts to undemocratic practices, impacting economic, security, and societal conditions on both sides of their shared border.
Mexico’s democracy faces strain partly due to transnational organized criminal groups exercising increasing territorial control. This election was marred by high levels of political violence perpetrated by these groups. According to a database project run by the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE), there have been 351 threats, attacks, murders, and attempts against government-affiliated individuals up to election day in 2024. Mexico remains the most dangerous country in the Western Hemisphere for journalists and human rights defenders.
The fragility of Mexico’s democracy also stems from six years under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration. López Obrador attempted constitutional and legal reforms to diminish institutional power when perceived as opposing his administration's interests. His ruling party Morena passed a law reducing Instituto Nacional Electoral’s (INE) staff by approximately 85 percent and cutting its budget by $271 million in February 2023. He frequently targeted journalists and accused judges of conspiracies against his administration while using state resources to support Claudia Sheinbaum.
Despite these challenges, independent institutions in Mexico have endured thus far. Preliminary figures indicate Morena is on track to gain supermajorities in both houses of Congress and control most governorships.
The incoming Mexican government presents an opportunity for the United States to support democratic consolidation in its closest neighbor while managing shared challenges like migration and cross-border trafficking without ignoring democratic backsliding.
Strong democratic institutions are crucial for long-term political stability, economic prosperity, and social cohesion—benefiting North America as a whole.
Standing up for democratic values in Mexico remains challenging due to complications such as U.S. democratic shortcomings and Mexican nationalism; however, these issues do not excuse failure to act.
For instance, the Biden administration should publicly engage with a range of political actors in Mexico and promote bipartisan delegation attendance at the presidential inauguration while continuing advocacy for human rights and press freedom.
While defending democracy within U.S. borders is critical, supporting democracy in neighboring Mexico is equally important for regional peace and prosperity given their intertwined fates.
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