On January 18, 2024, the Air Force informed Congress that the Sentinel program had exceeded its baseline cost projections, leading to a critical breach under the Nunn-McCurdy statute. Such a breach occurs when the Program Acquisition Unit Cost (PAUC) or Average Unit Procurement Cost (APUC) increases by 25 percent or more over the current Acquisition Program Baseline. By law, the program must be terminated unless certified by the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment (USD(A&S)) as meeting specific criteria to continue.
The Office of the Secretary of Defense conducted an in-depth review of the program to determine the factors contributing to this cost growth and whether it should be certified for continuation. Experts from various disciplines within the Department participated in this review.
Dr. William A. LaPlante, USD(A&S) and Milestone Decision Authority for the program, certified that the Sentinel program met statutory criteria for continuation. These criteria included:
- The essential nature of continuing the Sentinel program for national security.
- No alternatives providing acceptable capability at lower costs.
- Reasonable new estimates of acquisition unit costs or procurement unit costs as determined by CAPE.
- Higher priority status compared to other programs requiring funding adjustments.
- Adequate management structure to control future costs.
In certifying its continuation, LaPlante rescinded Sentinel's Milestone B approval and directed a restructuring of the program to address cost-related issues. CAPE estimated total acquisition costs for a modified Sentinel program at $140.9 billion—an 81 percent increase from previous estimates in September 2020. The majority of cost growth was attributed to Sentinel's command and launch segment.
"We are fully aware of the costs, but we are also aware of the risks of not modernizing our nuclear forces," LaPlante stated. "There are reasons for the cost growth, but there are no excuses."
"The nuclear Triad is fundamental to our national defense," LaPlante added. "Sentinel is a historic program aimed at modernizing this crucial component."
The restructuring will consider schedule preservation, although delays of several years are anticipated.
While U.S. nuclear deterrent systems remain operationally effective beyond their original design life spans, modernized capabilities are necessary to prevent gaps in fielding credible deterrents.
Under Secretary Melissa Dalton emphasized: "The Air Force is committed to addressing these findings and ensuring no capability gaps during this transition."
General David W. Allvin noted: "Our U.S. nuclear forces have been ready for decades; however, modernization is imperative given today's evolving security environment marked by two major nuclear powers."
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