On Saturday, July 27, a rocket struck a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children. The Israeli government attributed the attack to Hezbollah and, despite U.S. warnings to avoid the Lebanese capital, carried out a strike on Tuesday in the Dahieh neighborhood of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold. Early in the morning on July 31, Israel conducted a strike on Iranian soil, killing Ismail Haniyeh, the political head of Hamas. These developments underscore the precarious situation on Israel’s border with Lebanon and the risk of Iran and Israel entering into a wider war in the Middle East. Even carefully calibrated escalations risk spiraling out of control. U.S. officials must take urgent action to avoid wider conflict, including continued efforts toward an immediate ceasefire in the short term and steps to bolster Lebanon’s state institutions as an alternative to Hezbollah in the long term.
In the hours and days following Hamas’ terrorist attacks on October 7, global attention focused on how Iran’s other regional proxies—particularly Hezbollah—would respond. While Hezbollah’s leadership praised the attacks, they did not fully engage in all-out war against Israel at that time. However, as the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched a counteroffensive in Gaza, Hezbollah and IDF have continued to exchange attacks across the Israel-Lebanon border. The tensions have displaced more than 53,000 Israelis and 91,000 Lebanese from border areas.
More recently, IDF has suggested readiness for a ground offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. On June 25, former defense minister Benny Gantz stated that IDF could disable Hezbollah’s power grid and destroy their military capabilities “within days.” The recent strike in Majdal Shams has further escalated tensions. During a visit to Majdal Shams, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked: “The state of Israel will not and cannot let this pass. Our response will come, and it will be harsh.”
Currently, it appears that Israel is targeting key figures within Hamas and Hezbollah rather than initiating a ground offensive. Nonetheless, incidents like those in Majdal Shams and Beirut illustrate how such strikes can cause significant loss of life and trigger retaliatory measures that may escalate uncontrollably.
An Israeli invasion of Lebanon would depend on various factors—including Iran’s response to Haniyeh’s assassination—and external assurances of support for Israel. Such an offensive would likely endure far longer than mere days due to Hezbollah's considerable strength compared to Hamas; it is embedded into mountainous terrain—a more challenging environment than Gaza's urban areas.
The costs of such escalation would be severe. Fighting extending into Lebanon's city centers could result in higher civilian casualties than seen in Gaza due to Beirut's larger population of 2.4 million people compared to Gaza's total population.
For months now U.S officials have engaged in high-level diplomacy aimed at avoiding escalation while also assuring support for Israel if conflict with Lebanon ensues again emphasizing need for immediate durable ceasefire agreements particularly since one major motivation behind Hezbolla’s actions lies avenging Palestinians enclave thus making ceasefire crucial reducing regional tension
However recent assassination suggests Netanyahu prefers ongoing conflict over peace given Haniyeh played central role negotiations prompting Biden administration consider withholding lethal weapons shipments increase pressure towards ceasefire discourage further escalation
Longer-term strategy combating Hezbolla/Iran influence requires targeting funding/support sources through sanctions corruption/illicit trades yet sanctions alone insufficient without stronger Lebanese state delivering services better resourced able protect citizens unlike Hezbolla which despite violence/corruption remains influential providing services/protection many Lebanese pre-October decline popularity post-Beirut explosion investigations revealed responsibility leading deadly protests subsequently quashed
To aid democratic secure Lebanese state reduce Hezbolla influence US should provide diplomatic/material support underresourced institutions suffering economic crisis alongside indigenous reform addressing institutional weaknesses/corruption prioritizing LAF comprehensive national security strategy ensuring execution supporting UN Security Council resolution securing peace border
Ultimately all Middle Eastern peoples deserve safety security freedom preventing future conflicts remains urgent mandate US partners region
