Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that retail sales continued to grow in August, driven by rising wages amid falling inflation, according to National Retail Federation (NRF) Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
“These numbers show the continued resiliency of the American consumer,” Kleinhenz stated. “While sales growth decelerated from last month’s pace, there is little hint of consumer spending unraveling. Households have the underpinnings to spend as recent wage gains have outpaced inflation even though payroll growth saw a slowdown in July and August. Easing inflation is providing added spending capacity to cost-weary shoppers and the interest rate cuts expected to come from the Fed should help create a more positive environment for consumers in the future.”
The Census Bureau reported that overall retail sales in August increased by 0.1% seasonally adjusted month over month and 2.1% unadjusted year over year. This compares with increases of 1.1% month over month and 2.9% year over year in July.
August’s core retail sales, as defined by NRF — based on Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants — rose by 0.3% seasonally adjusted month over month and 3.3% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.4% year over year for the first eight months of the year, aligning with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales growth between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to 2023.
Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales increased by 0.17% seasonally adjusted month over month in August and by 1.93% year over year, compared with increases of 0.95% month over month and 1.69% year over year in July.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not require monthly or annual revisions.
As a leading authority for the retail industry, NRF provides monthly data on retail sales and forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as each year's holiday season.
About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for people, brands, policies, and ideas that help retail succeed from its headquarters in Washington D.C., empowering an industry crucial to the economy. Retail is America's largest private-sector employer contributing $5.3 trillion annually to GDP while supporting more than one in four U.S jobs—55 million working Americans.
