John Furner President and CEO | Official website
The National Retail Federation (NRF) has projected an increase in winter holiday spending for 2024, estimating growth between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to the previous year. This would result in total holiday spending ranging from $979.5 billion to $989 billion during November and December, up from $955.6 billion last year.
"The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. He added that American families' ability to spend is supported by a strong job market and wage growth.
Online shopping is expected to be a significant driver of retail sales growth, with online and other non-store sales anticipated to rise between 8% and 9%, totaling between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion, compared to $273.3 billion last year.
"We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year," stated NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, noting that household finances are robust but spending may be more cautious.
Retailers are preparing for increased consumer demand by planning to hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year, slightly down from last year's 509,000 hires.
This year's holiday shopping period will be six days shorter than last year's due to calendar differences, lasting 26 days from Thanksgiving to Christmas. The economic impacts of Hurricanes Helene and Milton may also play a role in shaping this season's retail environment.
The NRF bases its holiday forecast on various economic indicators such as consumer spending, disposable income, employment figures, wages, inflation rates, and previous retail sales data. The organization excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants from its calculations to focus on core retail activities.
For further details on their forecasts or other retail data provided by NRF each month, interested parties can visit their Winter Holiday FAQ or Winter Holiday Headquarters online.
The National Retail Federation represents the interests of retailers across America from its headquarters in Washington D.C., advocating for policies that support retail success while providing insights into industry trends.
