Christopher Chivvis and Jack Keating of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace released a report on October 8, analyzing cooperation between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The report recommends that the United States work to weaken China's relationships with these three nations.
According to Chivvis and Keating, although China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea all present threats to U.S. interests, they do not form a coherent bloc. Most cooperation has been bilateral and primarily focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine. For instance, Iran has supplied Russia with drones and missiles; North Korea has provided munitions; and China has provided dual-use equipment. This cooperation has helped Russia sustain its war effort and lessened the effect of U.S. sanctions. However, the authors note that these countries still pose threats largely independent of one another.
The report states that shared ideology is not the main driver of cooperation between these countries. While they are all non-democratic regimes, their ideologies differ significantly and do not inherently require conflict with the United States. Rather, Chivvis and Keating say that a shared perception of threat from the West is what drives these states together. Relations between the United States and each of the four countries have deteriorated over the past decade, creating incentives for them to cooperate.
Keating outlines several potential threats that could arise from deeper cooperation between these countries. One concern is the possibility of Russia and China transferring nuclear technology to Iran and North Korea, which would have serious implications for U.S. security. Another worry is that these countries could coordinate their actions during a crisis or war to strain U.S. resources; for example, Russia might escalate the conflict in Ukraine during a Taiwan crisis.
The authors recommend that the United States prioritize weakening China’s relationships with Russia, Iran, and North Korea because China plays a central role in supporting and organizing these countries. Without China's backing, these countries would be weaker and more isolated. They suggest that improving relations with China could reduce its incentives to cooperate with the other three nations. If this does not happen, Chivvis warns that these four countries could form a more cohesive adversarial bloc, leading to a costly new Cold War.
Chivvis is a senior fellow and director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He also teaches courses on foreign policy and international history at Johns Hopkins University and previously served as the U.S. national intelligence officer for Europe.
