China's development of humanoid robots could potentially support its military ambitions, according to Bill Drexel, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Although China's progress in robotics currently lags behind Western countries, Drexel suggests that China could eventually surpass them. He shared his insights on October 21.
"Chinese companies' commercial ambitions in the space are ultimately inseparable from the PRC's military ambitions, given CCP's insistence that Chinese industry stay subordinate to the Chinese government's will," said Drexel. "With some Chinese military experts calling for the use of humanoid robots in conflict, it would be foolish to ignore the country's progress towards developing these capabilities. That said, military-grade humanoid robots for use in combat or other military activities are likely ways away for now, and the quality of Chinese humanoid robots generally lags that of Western equivalents at present. But China has pulled ahead in other high-tech areas before, such as electric vehicles and social media apps, and could plausibly do so in robotics as well, particularly given their economic incentives to automate their economic activity due to their aging population."
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) highlighted in an October 10 issue alert paper that China is making rapid advancements in humanoid robot development. This progress raises concerns due to China's military-civil fusion policy. Humanoid robots are characterized by their human-like appearance and possess locomotion, dexterity, and intelligence. Locomotion allows them to navigate human-designed environments, dexterity enables interaction with objects using fine motor skills, and intelligence—often driven by artificial intelligence (AI)—allows them to perceive and engage with the world. Recent AI breakthroughs have resulted in more autonomous humanoid robots capable of complex interactions.
According to the USCC, China is actively pursuing leadership in the humanoid robot industry through a multifaceted approach similar to its strategy for other critical technologies. This includes government support via subsidies, tax breaks, development zones, promoting domestic adoption, and fostering public-private research collaboration. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has set goals for China's humanoid robot sector to achieve a world-class innovation ecosystem by 2025 and integrate into manufacturing supply chains by 2027. Significant investment has been directed towards this industry from technology giants, private equity firms, state-owned enterprises, and government funds.
Although general-purpose autonomous humanoid robots are not yet commercially available, some companies have announced near-future releases despite existing limitations. Chinese firms appear competitive regarding robot size and speed but lag behind in hardware precision, durability, and key sensor technology. The future of humanoid robots in China holds transformative potential for its economy and society by addressing labor shortages and rising labor costs. However, China's military-civil fusion policy blurs the lines between commercial and military applications, raising concerns about potential military uses of these robots.
Drexel is a Fellow for the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. His research focuses on AI technology and U.S.-China competition. He previously worked on Indo-Pacific affairs at the American Enterprise Institute and conducted investigative research in Xinjiang, China.
