American elections are regarded as secure, yet misinformation continues to challenge their legitimacy, particularly on social media. In the days leading up to the election, narratives of fraud from unverified sources have gained traction. This situation mirrors events four years ago when similar claims led to unrest at the U.S. Capitol.
A recent survey by the Associated Press reveals that 40% of Americans anticipate political violence following the election. The Department of Homeland Security has identified "perceptions of voter fraud" as a potential catalyst for such violence, and foreign entities may also attempt to undermine trust in the electoral process.
Key dates between Election Day on November 5th and Inauguration Day on January 20th pose significant risks for misinformation-fueled disruptions. These include November 5th, when ballots are counted; December 11th, the deadline for appointing state electors; December 17th, when electors vote; January 6th, when Congress counts electoral votes; and January 20th, Inauguration Day.
Misinformation is expected to peak around these dates with narratives falling into two main categories: election denial and candidate-specific claims. Election denial narratives often suggest that shifting vote tallies indicate fraud or allege misconduct by election officials. There are also claims about issues with voting machines and false allegations about noncitizen voting.
Candidate-specific narratives may depict candidates as victims or involve shocking allegations against them. For instance, Donald Trump has claimed that investigations against him constitute a "witch hunt." False accusations have also targeted other candidates like Tim Walz.
The interaction between online misinformation and offline disruptions is notable. Misinformation can lead to threats against election workers and facilities, causing fear among voters and disrupting procedures. Recent incidents include threats received by election officials and attacks on ballot drop boxes.
The Department of Homeland Security warns that perceptions of voter fraud could incite violence, while misinformation hampers election officials' ability to perform their duties effectively.
