Former President Donald Trump, known for his dealmaking approach, has been engaging directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This has sparked speculation about the possibility of a grand bargain between the United States and China. Questions have arisen regarding whether Trump might attempt a reset with Beijing similar to Richard Nixon's or if he would overlook China's actions toward Taiwan in exchange for economic benefits.
Chinese delegations have been visiting Washington since November to explore potential deals. However, there is no consensus within Trump's circle or American foreign policy circles on what should be asked of China. Some advocate for rebalancing the economic relationship, while others argue for a strategic decoupling from the Chinese Communist Party.
Despite these discussions, "no one has landed on the perfect contours of a grand bargain." The idea of a single sweeping deal is appealing but history shows that managing U.S.-China relations requires ongoing strategic management rather than grand gestures.
For decades, both countries have sought an all-encompassing agreement to resolve disputes, but many demands remain irreconcilable. For China, such a deal would involve U.S. acquiescence to its ambitions including Taiwan's annexation and unrestricted market access. Meanwhile, the United States seeks concessions that China refuses to make, such as renouncing military aggression and improving human rights practices.
"Perhaps Trump is the best negotiating partner Beijing will ever get," given his views on Taiwan. However, even within his administration and party, there is little agreement on this perspective. Any commitment by one U.S. president can be overturned by successors—a concern shared by China.
A more realistic approach involves grounding engagement in realism rather than chasing elusive deals. Trump and Xi could establish broad expectations and negotiate issue-specific agreements on trade and other matters while ensuring accountability through credible enforcement mechanisms.
To influence Beijing effectively, Washington must engage from a position of strength by investing in its own resilience and maintaining measured ties with China. This pragmatic approach aligns with how U.S.-China relations have historically been managed—avoiding extremes like appeasement or hostility.
Author Patricia M. Kim emphasizes that this strategy delivers better results despite being challenging and often unsatisfying.
