The fate of Taiwan has become one of the most consequential and precarious issues in global politics. In Why Taiwan Matters, China scholar Kerry Brown traces how the island’s complex identity, contested sovereignty, and central role in the global semiconductor supply chain make it a geopolitical powder keg.
Brown’s concerns after decades of diplomatic and academic experience are on the contradictions of Taiwan’s democracy flourishing under the threat of authoritarian force, and how Beijing’s nationalist claims only deepen Taiwan’s distinctiveness. According to Brown, there are no easy solutions—only a growing danger.
Brown is a professor of Chinese Studies and director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London. He was a diplomat, and is an academic and prolific author of nearly 20 books on Chinese politics. His latest book, Why Taiwan Matters: A Short History of a Small Island That Will Dictate Our Future, offers a sobering look at the island’s tangled past and uncertain future.
Brown studied English at Cambridge, but a stint teaching in Japan in the early 1990s introduced him to China, which was still reeling from the aftershock of Tiananmen. “It was very, very intriguing,” he says. “A very happy accident, but it was an accident.”
He developed a deep interest in post-1949 Chinese history. As a British diplomat, he lived in Beijing and traveled extensively throughout China. “I’ve been to every single province and autonomous region,” Brown says. “It’s been a big, big journey.”
His first visit to Taiwan in 2000 is, by his own admission, disorienting. “It seemed more like Japan,” he says. The Mandarin is familiar—but slightly different. The museum in Taipei houses priceless artifacts from Beijing’s Forbidden City, taken there during the Chinese Civil War. “The most classical Chinese culture,” he says, “but not where it once was.”
His deeper dive into Taiwan began in 2008, when he served as an election observer. “In this country, politics is enjoyable,” he says with amusement, contrasting Taiwan’s elections with Britain’s, which he likens to “going to the dentist.” That trip sparked years of research and writing, culminating in a completely revised version of his earlier work, The Trouble with Taiwan. He realizes, “So much has happened in the last few years… the issue of Taiwan has become so different now.”
Brown sees Taiwan’s history as central to understanding its present. “It’s a very hybrid history. It’s got a lot of different strands,” he says. “Even in 1949… it was only a small minority of people from the mainland that moved there, and it caused great divisions.” That complexity, he stresses, “does not give easy answers to anyone making a big claim about who owns Taiwan and what Taiwan should be.”
He identifies three key elements shaping Taiwan today: its hybrid political identity as a democracy, its vital economic role in semiconductor manufacturing, and its evolving sense of national identity. “Modern Taiwanese… identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese,” he says. “And the more [Beijing] claims them, the more Taiwan becomes different.”
The heart of the problem, Brown argues, is that Taiwan’s success and China’s nationalist resolve are pushing in opposite directions. “It’s not a resolvable problem,” he says flatly. “People who work on Taiwan, I think they know that. But people who come to the issue seeking a nice framework and a resolution… you can’t really find that.”
Taiwan’s centrality in the global tech supply chain further complicates matters. “A blockade would mean these very high-tech chips that no one else really produces… just wouldn’t be available,” he says. Taiwan’s chip giant, TSMC, owes its success not only to technological excellence but also to geography, history, and institutional trust. “You can duplicate technology,” Brown says, “but you can’t duplicate culture… or the trust that this supply chain has.”
He insists that the danger of war is real—and escalating. “This isn’t like Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Gaza. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t deadly dangerous,” he warns. “If it started to unravel, there’s going to be no limits to where it could end.”
He doesn’t romanticize the so-called status quo, but he defends it. “It’s a crazy, crazy set of policies. But it has delivered… contact and stability. That’s all we’ve got.” As a result, he urges policy prescriptions based on humility. “I’m very wary of people who say there are answers,” he says. “We have to be respectful of the fact that there’s no consensus anywhere on how to resolve this.”
Brown places his greatest hope in the people of Taiwan. “Young Taiwanese today… their real preoccupations are the economy, housing, the environment, and good jobs,” he says. “They are going to have a big, big role in deciding the global future… They need sympathy and empathy.”
He believes the U.S. view of Taiwan should involve more than geopolitics. “It’s about human links,” he says. “It’s not a problem we’re going to solve with a neat solution, but it’s one we must handle with care.”
The China Desk podcast informs policymakers and the public about critical issues in the US-China relationship and is hosted by Steve Yates. If you’d like to listen to the full episode with him and Kerry Brown, please follow the links at our Federal Newswire Podcast page.
