Strategic stability between China and the United States remains a critical issue, with security experts from both nations examining differing perspectives on how to address it. This analysis is part of the "Lost in translation: Decoding Chinese strategic narratives" series by Global China.
Chinese security experts categorize strategic stability into two philosophical schools. One school, represented by Men Honghua of Tongji University, adopts a holistic approach, viewing nuclear weapons as one of many factors contributing to interstate stability. Another group follows a reductionist view, focusing on low incentives for nuclear attacks and arms races. Scholars like Lu Yin are part of this group.
The disparity in nuclear capabilities between China and the U.S. is a significant concern for Chinese experts. China's growth in nuclear weapons aims to ensure mutual retaliatory capabilities, maintaining strategic stability with the U.S., although some American experts worry about losing their perceived superiority.
China's limited arsenal in the past relied on "quantitative ambiguity" for survivability, but advancements in U.S. detection have prompted China to enhance its nuclear forces' mobility through technical measures.
The development of the U.S. missile defense system has alarmed Chinese experts, who criticize initiatives like the Golden Dome system for undermining strategic stability. Guo Xiaobing notes that this represents a shift in U.S. policy towards peer competitors.
Debates within the U.S. about accepting China's nuclear retaliation capability are closely monitored by Chinese scholars who emphasize the importance of mutual vulnerability for strategic stability.
Chinese participants express frustration over obstacles imposed by the U.S. government on bilateral dialogues concerning strategic stability. Historical exchanges between scientists from both countries have been beneficial but faced setbacks due to political issues such as visa restrictions and accusations of espionage.
Emerging technologies pose new challenges to strategic stability, with concerns about potential inadvertent conflicts arising from developments in outer space, cyberspace, and artificial intelligence (AI). Chinese scholars advocate for international dialogue on these issues to prevent escalation and maintain human control over nuclear decisions.
In conclusion, while academic dialogue has resumed post-pandemic, further development is needed to address emerging technology impacts on strategic stability between China and the United States.
