The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released its August Crop Production report Aug. 18, the primary mid-season benchmark for U.S. commodity crop forecasts that drives prices from Chicago futures pits to American grocery stores.
The August report is historically the most market-moving agricultural data release of the year, as it captures data from critical pollination and pod-fill growth stages that largely determine final corn and soybean yields.
NASS provided authoritative yield and production forecasts for corn, soybeans, and other major crops based on field surveys and satellite data collected through the growing season, according to the agency’s release.
The report is closely watched by commodity traders on the Chicago Board of Trade, where corn and soybean futures contracts can swing by meaningful percentages on the day of its release. Agricultural trade decisions globally are shaped by the U.S. production outlook.
The data will influence farm income projections for the remainder of 2026 and shape food price expectations for American consumers. Corn and soybeans are foundational inputs in the U.S. food system, affecting everything from animal feed prices to cooking oils and processed foods.
The American Farm Bureau has noted that commodity prices directly affect the financial viability of farms across the Midwest and Plains states, where corn and soybeans dominate crop rotations.
Market analysts at grain elevators and trading firms had positioned for the report in advance, with futures markets reflecting a range of expectations about yield outcomes.
The August report will be followed by updated production estimates in September, October, and November as harvest results provide ground-truth data. However, the August reading typically sets the directional trajectory for the remainder of the marketing year.