Analysts believe China’s Xi Jinping will not attack Taiwan before he is re-elected, according to CIA Director William Burns. He told a House committee that the world’s reaction to Russia invading Ukraine has given Xi second thoughts.
Xi Jinping will likely view any action against Taiwan as too risky ahead of the CCP's 20th party congress later this year. China will assemble its political leaders for the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party during the second half of 2022, The Heritage Foundation said in its March 7 report, “Looking Ahead to China’s 20th Party Congress.”
"There would be a huge degree of uncertainty, and such a war would be so costly, Taiwan would be destroyed, along with China's southeastern coast,” Titus Chen, associate professor of political science at Taiwan's National Sun Yat-sen University in Kaohsiung, said, in a March 9 Radio Free Asia report. “Then, international isolation and lot of sanctions, which would really hurt the Chinese people, and that wouldn't be a good thing for him. So he'll be wanting to at least put on a peaceful face until after the 20th party congress."
It is expected Xi Jinping will keep his position as the party leader for at least another term.
"I would just say analytically, I would not underestimate President Xi and the Chinese leadership's determination with regard to Taiwan," Burns said, Radio Free Asia reported. "They have been surprised and unsettled to some extent by what they've seen in Ukraine over the last 12 days, everything from the strength of the western reaction, to the way in which Ukrainians have fiercely resisted."
It is likely, according to Burns, Chinese leadership did not anticipate collateral damage to the CCP's reputation as a result of its close ties to Putin, Radio Free Asia reported.
