A Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) panel provided analysis and commentary virtually on March 21 on China's National People’s Congress, which began meeting on March 5 for the first time in several months and since China ended its zero-Covid policy.
“It’s clear to me that China faces four big challenges: debt, productivity, going over a potential demographic cliff, and international tensions, all of which could massively restrict growth and force China into a middle-income trap or a low-middle income trap,” Scott Kennedy, CSIS Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics said during the session.
China experts from CSIS, including Jude Blanchette, Trustee Chair Scott Kennedy, and China Power Project Director Bonny Lin discussed the key takeaways from this National People's Congress and how it could impact the U.S., a CSIS release reported. Joining them were Jamie Horsely, senior fellow of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School; Mikko Huotari, executive director of the Mercator Institute for China Studies; and Manoj Kewalramani, chair of the Indo-Pacific Research Programme at the Takshashila Institution.
“One of my general takeaways is what we saw is the completion of the construction of the Xi Jinping system of governance in which the [Chinese Communist] party plays a much greater role," Kennedy said during the session. "There’s less space for civil society,”
“The main takeaway is that in spite of increasing party oversight of traditional state institutions and functions, unlike what happened in 2018, which really was a massive restructuring, we did not see major additional absorption of state institutions by the party,” Horsley said. “The only exception to that was that the state Council’s Hong Kong and Macau affairs office did get merged into a new party commission.”
Most of the major state institutions that were restructured were not put directly under party control, she said. Horsley expressed relief that a new national data regulator was given some degree of autonomy.
Lin said President Xi Jinping flagged two diplomatic events, the China Central Asia Summit and a third Belton Road Forum for International Cooperation.
Xi’s visit to Russia this week and his invitation to Putin to visit China signal how important China views Russia, she said.
“It also means that as we look at what’s happening, we’ll likely see China continue to elevate relations with Russia. And we should be very cautious and closely monitor what China is trying to do on Ukraine,” Lin said.
Manoj noted that despite hearing about factionalism and infighting, Xi remains firmly in control.
“Xi Jinping talked about the two halves, food security and manufacturing, and a strong manufacturing sector. Those, I think, tell us a little bit about the policy priorities for the next couple of years, at least, which are critical,” he said.
The approximately 3,000 members of the NPC typically convene for one to two weeks annually, during which they announce personnel changes and review proposed laws, Reuters reported. Delegates are comprised of 26.5% women and 15% ethnic minorities.
