Russia and Ukraine are significant producers and exporters of several commodities including wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and fertilizer. Production or marketing developments in these countries have the potential to impact global agricultural markets, including the U.S. Accordingly, ERS’ Outlook and Trade research programs closely monitor agricultural markets in Russia and Ukraine as part of the ERS mission to inform and enhance public and private decision making. The following page provides a summary of key agricultural markets and links to selected ERS analyses of agricultural production, trade, and policy in Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine and Russia export agricultural and chemical products to many trading partners around the globe. Ukraine’s corn exports are concentrated—with more than one-third destined for China. Russia is a leading exporter of wheat. In 2020/21, the country supplied numerous markets with Egypt and Turkey representing approximately 40 percent of wheat export sales.
Recent Charts of Note
- June 2022: Sunflower Oil Production Makes Up 9 Percent of All Vegetable Oil Produced Globally
- April 2022: U.S. Wheat Prices Surge in Wake of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
- Oil Crops Outlook: May 2022: (See page 9): World Rapeseed Production Contributes To Increase in the Oils Supply: "Respectively, 2022/23 Russian and Ukrainian rapeseed production is forecasted at 2.8 and 3.2 million metric tons, respectively. With a higher Russian crop, their crush is forecasted to increase to a record level of 2.35 million metric tons. In contrast, Ukraine traditionally exports most of its rapeseed crop (to the EU) which is forecast at 2.75 million metric tons."
- Wheat Outlook: May 2022: (See page 11): International Outlook: "The Russia-Ukraine war has increased the risk surrounding the harvest of the winter wheat, resulting in higher abandonment expected in conflict areas (area harvested projected down 1.6 million hectares from 2021/22 to 5.9 million)."
- Feed Outlook: May 2022: (See page 15) International Outlook: "World coarse grain production in 2022/23 is forecast down 22.5 million tons (1.5 percent) from the previous year to 1,475.9 million. Much of the change is attributed to a decline in U.S. intended planting, as reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report—exacerbated by poor planting conditions, and the drastic war-induced decline in Ukraine that is expected to see a 31-percent reduction in its coarse grain area."
- Feed Outlook: April 2022: Special Article (See page 6): Projected 2021/22 Corn Price Raised, Cash Prices Remain Elevated Since Russian Invasion of Ukraine: "Cash prices for corn throughout the United States have increased since the Russian military’s invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022. Global grain markets have since been operating at higher price levels and have seen increased levels of volatility."
- Oil Crops Outlook: April 2022: Special Article (See page 5): Sunflower Oil and Its Contribution to the Global Vegetable Oil Market: "The events in Ukraine escalated an already tight vegetable oil market. Global vegetable oil prices skyrocketed in the last 5 weeks to record levels, further escalating inflation and growing concern for food supplies in many countries. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has significantly increased the uncertainty of the agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally."
- Wheat Outlook: April 2022: (See page 3): International Outlook: "As the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, wheat prices remain elevated resulting in lower imports for 2021/22 as countries find a balance between rationing demand and tightening their stocks.
- Feed Outlook: March 2022: Russian Incursion into Ukraine Disrupts Global Grain Markets: “Russia’s recent military action in Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally. The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report represents an initial assessment of the short-term impacts, as a result of this action.”
- Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: March 2022: (See page 7) Added Uncertainty for Dairy Markets Due to Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Oil Crops Outlook: March 2022: (See page 5) Vegetable Oil Market Impacted by Black Sea Conflict
- Wheat Outlook: March 2022: (See page 3) U.S. Wheat Prices Surging: “Wheat prices are surging globally in the wake of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Prior to this development, prices were already elevated, influenced by relatively tight supplies in key exporting countries.”
- Historical Estimates of Fertilizer Expenses
- Feed Grains Outlook: February 2022: Special Article (See page 20): Ukraine’s Geography—Corn Production and Exports
- Wheat Outlook: February 2022: Special Article (See page 11): International Feature: Evolution of Russian Wheat Export Restrictions and Potential Impacts
- Major Changes in Export Flows Over the Last Decade Show the U.S. Is Losing Market Share in Global Grain Trade
- Agricultural Recovery in Russia and the Rise of Its South
- Productivity Growth and the Revival of Russian Agriculture
- Changing Crop Area in the Former Soviet Union Region
- Rising Grain Exports by the Former Soviet Union Region
- Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in U.S. Fertilizer Prices, 2002-08
- Impact of Rising Natural Gas Prices on U.S. Ammonia Supply
- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
- Foreign Agricultural Service Data and Analysis
- United States Geological Services (USGS), 2022. Mineral Commodity Summaries. Retrieved: https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center
Source: https://www.ers.usda.gov/newsroom/trending-topics/agricultural-markets-in-russia-and-ukraine/
