Shihoko Goto, director for Geoeconomics and Indo-Pacific Enterprise and deputy director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center, warned Federal Newswire that there could be disastrous economic effects from a blockade or invasion of Taiwan by China.
Goto's statements came after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), visited with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in California April 5. Reps. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill), co-chairs of the House Select Committee on China, also attended the meeting.
The meeting drew stern warnings from the government of China, NPR reported at the time, and threatened "countermeasures" if the meeting took place. China has increased military movement around Taiwan, adding to tensions between the U.S. and China, according to the NPR report.
"Just as there had been aggressive responses from China following the (former House Speaker Nancy) Pelosi (D-Calif) visit to Taiwan, Chinese reactions to the Tsai-McCarthy visit were only to be expected," Goto stated to Federal Newswire.
China's military executed live-fire military drills once the Tsai-McCarthy meeting concluded, sending warships and more than 70 planes near Taiwan, with 45 planes crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, Axios reported at the time.
China's aggressive military actions occurred despite some analysts interpreting the decision for Tsai and McCarthy to meet in California, instead of Taiwan as McCarthy originally wanted, as an attempt to calm tensions, according to the NPR report.
"The Chinese should be relieved that McCarthy is not going to Taiwan," Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund, told NPR. "But there could be a perception in Beijing that they have to up the ante and they have to, they want to be taken seriously by the United States and by Taiwan, that they can't look soft."
The Chinese military exercises were "a serious warning against the collusion and provocation between the 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces and external forces,” China's People's Liberation Army said in a statement. "President Biden has said multiple times the U.S. will defend Taiwan and the U.S. has continued to sell arms to Taiwan."
"Beijing’s fundamental stance regarding Taiwan remains unchanged, that is to say that it views Taiwan as a renegade province of the PRC and that unification with Taiwan is one of China’s 'core interests,'" Goto said. "The change is in how the international community including the United States can come to the defense of Taiwan politically as well as militarily and economically."
Goto said Taiwan feels empowered by its "so-called silicon shield, given the fact that it dominates the advanced chipmaking sector in the world."
She said if China invaded or blockaded Taiwan, "the global semiconductor supply would take a nosedive and it would lead to nothing short of a crisis in the advanced manufacturing and technology sectors."
"Our daily lives would be severely impacted as a result, as we would not be able to have the chips that power the latest iPhones, cars, laptops etc," Goto said. "While the United States is trying to invest in its own chip-making capabilities at home, they won’t be available for another few years in the best case scenario."
NPR reported President Tsai Ing-wen told McCarthy she is determined to "defend the peaceful status quo" and is grateful for U.S. support that "reassures the people of Taiwan that we are not isolated, we are not alone."
Gallagher recently introduced the Sanctions Targeting Aggressors of Neighboring Democracies (STAND) with Taiwan Act, which proposes imposing comprehensive economic and financial sanctions on China if the People’s Liberation Army or its proxies invade Taiwan, according to previous reporting by Federal Newswire.
"The STAND with Taiwan Act makes clear that should Xi choose to invade, the U.S. will not hesitate to respond with crippling and comprehensive economic sanctions on any person or company supporting a CCP invasion of Taiwan" Gallagher said in a press release.
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who co-sponsored the bill, said in the release that if China chooses to invade, it "would deliver a devastating blow to the U.S. and global economy, lead our allies in Asia to question America’s commitments, allow the CCP to break out further into the Pacific and give (China President Xi Jinping) and his global authoritarian model extraordinary new legitimacy at home and abroad."
Sullivan also warned how an invasion of Taiwan by China would severely hurt U.S. national security because many U.S. defense systems rely on the semiconductor chips.
