A recent press release from the RAND Corp. pointed out that durable reconstruction in Ukraine depends upon an end to the fighting and the development of effective post-war security arrangements, as well as cooperation between the United States and Europe.
In a research report, RAND noted that security is key to the rebuilding of Ukraine, and any reconstruction efforts are likely to stumble without security. A permanent stability would provide investors with confidence to make a commitment to the country.
"Ukrainian reconstruction might be the largest recovery project in modern history, but it is best seen as a continuation of Europe's 75-year history of post-war rebuilding and reintegration," Howard Shatz, senior economist at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School specializing in international economics and economics and national security, recently told the Federal Newswire.
In the wake of World War II and the Cold War, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) sent security forces into the regions, the RAND report said. NATO also sent more than 100,000 peacekeeping forces into Kosovo, Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia following the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia.
As the current conflict ends, it would be important for Ukraine to receive assistance and membership into the European Union. But similar options would not be proposed for Russia, which would have to adhere to being a peaceful world player. That would need to be ensured through deterrence which, if unsuccessful, could result in a more widespread conflict.
The report creates its foundation from examples set in post-war reconstruction in Eastern Europe, Western Europe and the Balkans; RAND said. It offers options for financing, securing and organizing the rebuilding of the nation, with post-war and post-disaster efforts providing a roadmap. The U.S. would be tapped to head security and the EU would drive the economic rebound.
Additionally, international aid, private sources and Ukraine could all pool together for funding, with the use of Russian assets also being a possible option; the RAND report said. A prioritized agenda should detail key tasks amid effective cooperation and the appointment of a respected inspector general.
Lastly, the report noted that it would be important for public sentiment to be firmly behind a long-term rebuilding of the war-torn country, and with the Marshall Plan as a framework, the U.S. could set up a solid effort.
The hurdles to rebuilding Ukraine can be viewed through the prism of post-war successes in Europe and the lasting partnerships that have resulted, the report said. It concluded that priority actions should begin with analyzing security options, adopting a modernized law for U.S. efforts and building up bipartisan support.
