The Baker Institute for Public Policy of Rice University released a research paper written for its Center for the U.S. and Mexico showcasing new identification strategies that may be effective in identifying cartel networks at the border, the abstract of the research says.
"We find that all four algorithms are useful to predict the formation of new connections, but that the preferential attachment algorithm performed the best given the power law-like distribution of the criminal network," the research paper abstract says. "Further, our qualitative analysis indicates that these predicted relationships may represent existing alliances that have not been observed due to the clandestine nature of the criminal network." The paper's authors are Oscar Contreras Velasco, Nathan P. Jones, Daniel Weisz Argomedo, John P. Sullivan and Chris Callaghan.
The paper said that potential links between crime organizations in Mexico might be identifiable by using “node similarity-based algorithms” and “social network analysis” (SNA), the abstract says.
The paper uses qualitative analysis to interpret the significance of these predicted links. It posits that such predictive algorithms can be invaluable tools for policy and intelligence circles. They provide an opportunity to fill in gaps in data and offer a more comprehensive understanding of the structure and dynamics of criminal organizations, which can inform future strategies for law enforcement and policy implementation, the abstract says.
From 2004 to 2020, the number of cartels and criminal groups increased from 10 to 150, the paper said. Then, in the next year, from 2020 to 2021, that number rose to 387, the paper said. "Several studies have argued that the militarization and kingpin strategy of the Mexican federal government led to this dramatic increase, while others have pointed to the process of political decentralization as one of the main factors," the paper said.
The Center for the U.S. and Mexico aims to research and develop solutions for U.S-Mexico relations. Among other things, trade, the rule of law, the border, and Mexican politics are areas of focus for the organization, a page at the Baker Institute says.
