The RAND Corporation has published a new study expressing worry that Russia's protracted dispute has the potential to escalate into a nuclear crisis. This report was produced in response to a request for comment from the Russian government.
According to research that was published on September 21, 2023 by the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy in the National Security Research Division, a nuclear strike on Ukraine is identified as a grim but plausible outcome if Russian military losses become a threat to the regime of President Vladimir Putin. This research was conducted by the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy.
According to Bryan Frederick, the lead author of the study and a distinguished political scientist, “We now know that pre-war assessments of the triggers for Russian escalation underestimated the factors restraining Putin from taking such actions. However, the conflict still has the potential to generate substantial further escalation should these restraining factors erode.”
According to the findings of this study, Vladimir Putin has refrained from further escalating the situation in Ukraine for three primary reasons: concern over the military capabilities and reactions of NATO; concern over the international repercussions, including the loss of support from China; and the belief that he can achieve his goals in Ukraine without further escalating the situation. This research demonstrates that these conditions are not fixed, which leaves the door open for Russia to engage in further purposeful escalation at some point in the future.
The authors of the research stress the importance of maintaining the solidarity of the NATO alliance over the risks of escalation, and they add that adopting a unified stance could deter Russia from launching future strikes. In addition, they urge the decision-makers to be ready for any unexpected escalation of hostilities on the part of either Russia or Ukraine, and they stress the importance of being prepared. Frederick argues that "inadvertent escalation" could take place as a result of military action taken by either Russia or Ukraine as the conflict continues to progress.
According to the findings of the research, due to the drawn-out nature of the conflict, the United States and its allies should make preparations for a wide variety of scenarios, including the establishment of diplomatic and military contact lines with Russia.
