A recent study has suggested that the best way to reduce violence stemming from drug cartels is to cut down the cartel’s ability to recruit new members. In a study published in Science, the number of active cartel members is about 175,000, and diminishing that figure is the best way to combat the cartels.
The study, conducted by researchers at the Complexity Science Hub, estimated that there are about 175,000 cartel members, and the cartels lose about 200 members a week to either death or incarceration. However, despite losing members, cartels have actually grown in size, gaining about 7,000 members per year between 2012 and 2022.
"These numbers are roughly in line with what other measurements have been," the study noted. "For example, the DEA estimated in July that the Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels have about 44,800 members, and this study estimated that they have around 46,600 members."
The study goes on to suggest that focusing solely on policing and arresting cartel members is leading to more violence. The researchers project that under the current state, cartels would grow by 26% by 2027, and casualties due to drug cartels would increase by 40%. Instead, the study proposes that meaningful decreases in violence could happen if efforts were focused on lowering the number of people joining cartels.
"One of the authors of this study, Rafael Prieto-Curiel, was a police officer in Mexico City before becoming a researcher and mathematician at the Complexity Science Hub," the study stated. "There is no way to know exactly how many members cartels employ, as they’re designed to keep things like that and their group’s structure secret, so researchers were only able to estimate based on the consequences of the cartel's actions, such as the murder rate."
The next step, according to Prieto-Curiel, is to understand exactly how cartels recruit new members. He suggests that it is likely due to threats of violence, direct recruitment, and young people seeking out cartels. Prieto-Curiel also puts a lot of blame on the media’s glorification of cartels and their leadership, which he believes attracts young individuals.
According to Carlos Gershenson, a computer scientist at Binghamton University, this study is a "breakthrough" and highlights the need to focus on the root of the problem rather than the consequences of cartels. Gershenson suggests increasing employment opportunities for young people in regions known for cartel activity as one possible solution.
