The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) has released a report examining the transformative role of drones in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. However, the first part of this two-part series on drone warfare characterizes their impact as "evolutionary," rather than "revolutionary."
According to a press release announcing the report, titled "Evolution Not Revolution: Drone Warfare in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine," drones' accessibility and affordability allow militaries to rapidly enhance their capabilities. The report further explores how these small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) complicate force concentration, surprise tactics execution, and offensive operations. Although drones increase risk acceptance, they are no more survivable than manned aircraft. Yet, the abundance and low cost of UAVs do not necessitate survivability as they can achieve resilience through reconstitution.
The CNAS press release states that drones on the battlefield are less revolutionary than evolutionary. While UAVs have converted ordinary artillery shells into precision weapons and loitering munitions or kamikaze drones have made frontlines more lethal—even in large numbers—they have neither supplanted artillery fire nor replaced traditional air forces.
With regard to the war in Ukraine, according to the CNAS press release, the report presents several key findings. Firstly, Russia maintains an advantage in drone technology which enables its military to see and strike further beyond front lines compared to Ukraine's military which is grappling with gaps. The report also underscores the crucial role volunteer networks play in procuring, modifying, and constructing drones on both sides of the conflict. Additionally, it provides insights into how Russia and Ukraine deploy drones and their respective technological advancements in countering drone attacks. For instance, in Ukraine, drones are deployed in stacks rather than swarms; however, both sides operate long-range kamikaze drones and are testing counter-drone technologies.
