Mike Gallagher, the head of the US House China committee, along with a group of lawmakers, is scheduled to visit Taiwan on February 21. This impending trip is anticipated to stir displeasure in Beijing.
The Financial Times reports that the United States government has repeatedly cautioned China against any aggressive actions towards Taiwan. The recent election victory of Lai Ching-te from the Democratic Progressive party has heightened these tensions. This win marks the first time a party has held power for three consecutive terms in Taiwan. Despite this, China continues to assert its claim over Taiwan as part of its territory and has not dismissed the possibility of using force to establish control. The Chinese government has frequently portrayed this election as a decision between war and peace, pressuring Taiwanese citizens to elect a new president. Following the rise of the Democratic Progressive party in 2016, Beijing severed communication with the Taiwanese government.
Analysts quoted by the South China Morning Post anticipate that Beijing will react to Gallagher's visit if he engages with Taiwanese leaders. However, they do not foresee these reactions escalating into large-scale military conflicts but rather predict verbal protests and minor military operations near the island. "Beijing is certain to be riled by Gallagher’s visit but not to the point that it would send dozens of warplanes and warships to surround and menace Taiwan," says Huang Kwei-bo, a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University in Taipei.
The South China Morning Post also notes that tensions between the United States and China escalated significantly when Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, visited Taiwan in 2022. Beijing interpreted this sequence of events as an infringement on its sovereignty and a violation of its policy towards China.
