John Furner President and CEO | Official website
The U.S. Census Bureau released data today indicating a moderation in retail sales during April, according to Jack Kleinhenz, Chief Economist of the National Retail Federation (NRF).
Kleinhenz stated, “Even though household income and job growth are compressing, the consumer spending picture remains positive.” He attributed the slower pace of spending to consumers being selective and prioritizing retail purchases. However, he also noted that consumers' willingness to spend continues to buoy the economy despite persistently high inflation for services and increased interest rates.
According to the Census Bureau, overall retail sales in April remained unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis from March but were up 3% unadjusted year over year. This is compared with increases of 0.6% month over month and 3.8% year over year in March. The year-over-year increase was partly due to recent downward revisions to last year's data.
April’s core retail sales—defined by NRF as excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants—were down 0.2% seasonally adjusted from March but up 3.9% unadjusted year over year. For the first four months of the year, core retail sales were up 3.8% year-over-year, aligning with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales growth between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported that core April retail sales were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted from March and almost unchanged — down just 0.05% — year over year. This compares with increases of 0.23% month over month and 2.92% year over year in March.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not require monthly or annual revisions.
As a leading authority for the retail industry, NRF provides monthly data on retail sales and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.
The National Retail Federation is a passionate advocate for the people, brands, policies, and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF supports the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs — 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies.
