Hudson Institute Senior Fellow John Lee stated that Australia, the U.S., and their allies should examine "non-military" tactics to employ against China whenever the country "intimidates Taiwan." Lee shared his statement in a commentary piece for the Hudson Institute on June 28.
"Indeed, the bolder China becomes in the grey zone, the more likely it is that deterring China from launching an invasion against Taiwan will eventually fail," said Lee. "This means that we must consider imposing non-military costs against China every time it coerces and intimidates Taiwan. The question is how to impose costs against China effectively without triggering an unintended conflict."
According to Lee's commentary, the U.S., Australia, and their allies should understand deterrence as dynamic rather than static. He said every time China expresses "aggressive intent or incursion not responded to," China moves the line even closer to attacking Taiwan. Lee suggested there should be "constant signaling" to China to make "the threat more credible" to deter action by China against Taiwan.
Hudson Institute Senior Fellow John Lee
| hudson.org
Challenging Chinese President Xi Jinping’s legitimacy as a leader will help in a U.S. conflict with China over Taiwan, according to the commentary. Lee said that the U.S. should threaten Xi's "control and dominance over a political economy" and act against his goals, plans, and objectives by specifically creating "a hierarchy of Xi’s priorities and vulnerabilities as he perceives them for the purposes of populating an escalatory ladder of non-military cost imposition based on how much anxiety certain measures will cause Xi and the Chinese leadership."
According to the BBC, China has been targeting the "grey zone" against Taiwan since as early as August 2023. Grey zone warfare strategy aims to weaken an adversary over a long period of time. China specifically crosses the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) – the median line between Taiwan – in order to test how far Taipei will go to reinforce it. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that "there is no so-called median line" in September 2023.
According to Bloomberg, China’s involvement in the South China Sea dispute is for the ultimate goal of acquiring Taiwan. Jonathan Malaya, Philippines National Security Council assistant director, said, "The Philippines is secondary for them. What they’re doing is sending a message to other countries they have disputes with: Don’t go and follow the Philippines system because this is how we’re going to react. This is part of standard Chinese intimidation and coercion against other nations."
Lee is based in Sydney, Australia at the Hudson Institute at the United States Studies Centre and is a professor at the University of Sydney, according to the institute's website. He was previously a senior national security advisor to Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop from 2016-2018, where he served as principal adviser on Asia on economic, strategic, and political affairs in the Indo-Pacific region.
