John Furner President and CEO | Official website
Retail sales data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that consumer spending increased in July, despite signs of moderating economic growth, according to National Retail Federation (NRF) Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
“July’s retail sale figures mirror the strength in the economy, which continues to expand even though there are pressures on growth,” Kleinhenz stated. “The midsummer boost from back-to-school and college spending along with special deal days offered by retailers clearly helped. Households are proceeding with measured spending and getting the benefit of falling retail prices despite still-elevated prices for services. Even with growth of the labor force cooling, consumer spending remains the backbone of the economy and is keeping the expansion on a positive path. We are all waiting to see what direction the Fed will take with interest rates.”
The Census Bureau reported that overall retail sales in July were up 1% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.7% unadjusted year over year. This follows a decrease of 0.2% month over month and an increase of 2% year over year in June.
July’s core retail sales, as defined by NRF—based on Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants—rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and 5.2% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.4% year-over-year for the first seven months of this year, aligning with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to 2023.
Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions reported that core retail sales were up 0.95% seasonally adjusted month over month in July and up 1.69% year over year compared to increases of 0.3% month over month and 3.07% year over year in June.Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions without needing monthly or annual revisions.
As a leading authority for the retail industry, NRF provides monthly data on retail sales and forecasts annual trends for key periods such as holiday seasons each year.
