The FBI has released its full-year National Incident-Based Reporting System data for 2023, showing one of the most significant single-year declines in the murder rate in U.S. history. Although this report does not include 2024 data, a new Center for American Progress (CAP) report indicates that the summer of 2024 experienced the smallest surge in gun violence since 2018.

Key findings from CAP's analysis reveal that in the 300 most populated U.S. cities, year-to-date gun violence homicides are down by 14.8 percent compared with 2023. The summer months of May to August saw a 25 percent increase in gun violence victimization rates compared to January through April of 2024. Historically, this period averaged a 41 percent increase over the past six years.

Despite these increases during warmer months, overall victimization rates in major U.S. cities remain lower than those recorded in 2023. These findings suggest that violent crime and gun violence are declining at historic rates.

These trends reflect broader national improvements following the worst effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and increased investments at various government levels in violence prevention strategies and new gun laws under the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act.

Chandler Hall, associate director for Gun Violence Prevention at CAP and author of the report, commented: "No matter how you look at it, all evidence—from all sources—is pointing to 2024 matching the historic progress in 2023 to make American communities safer. Not only are crime trends going down overall, but this analysis also provides hope that even spikes in violent crime and gun violence are becoming less severe."

For more information or expert commentary on this topic, Jasmine Razeghi can be contacted via email.

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