Retail sales experienced a minor decline in September compared to the previous month, yet showed growth over the same period last year. This is according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions and released by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“After seven consecutive months of gains, consumers pulled back a bit in September, which is historically a soft month for retail sales,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. He attributed this cautious consumer behavior to "geopolitical tensions, uncertainty regarding election outcomes, anticipation of the port strike and lingering inflation in services." Despite these challenges, there were still year-over-year spending increases on household priorities.
The report noted that total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, decreased by 0.32% from August but increased by 0.55% compared to September of the previous year. In contrast, August saw increases of 0.45% month over month and 2.11% year over year.
Core retail sales—which exclude restaurants as well as automobile dealers and gasoline stations—dropped by 0.28% from August but rose by 0.94% compared to last September. For August, core sales had risen by 0.17% month over month and 1.93% year over year.
This month's decrease marked only the second time since October 2022 that both total and core sales have fallen since January of this year. Over the first nine months of 2024, total sales were up by 1.91%, while core sales increased by 2.18%.
Unlike survey-based data from the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, eliminating the need for monthly or annual revisions.
Yearly growth was seen in five out of nine retail categories for September, with online sales leading alongside clothing and accessories stores and health and personal care stores.
The NRF provides monthly data on retail sales and forecasts annual spending for key periods such as holidays each year.
