Data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates a rise in retail sales for September, coinciding with employment growth and decreases in inflation and interest rates, according to Jack Kleinhenz, Chief Economist at the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“While there have been some signs of tightening in consumer spending, September’s numbers show consumers are willing to spend where they see value,” Kleinhenz stated. He added that "September sales come amid the recent trend of payroll gains and other positive economic signs. Clearly, consumers continue to carry the economy, and conditions for the retail sector remain favorable as we move into the holiday season."
The Census Bureau reported an overall increase in retail sales by 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis month over month and 1.7% unadjusted year over year for September. This follows August's figures which showed increases of 0.1% month over month and 2.2% year over year.
Core retail sales, as defined by NRF—excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants—rose by 0.7% seasonally adjusted month over month and increased by 2.4% unadjusted year over year in September. For the first nine months of the year, core retail sales were up 3.3% year over year, aligning with NRF's forecast for a growth between 2.5% and 3.5% in retail sales for 2024 compared to 2023.
Last week’s CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions showed core retail sales decreased slightly by 0.28% seasonally adjusted month over month but rose by 0.94% year over year in September.
As an authoritative voice for the retail industry, NRF provides monthly data on retail sales while also forecasting annual trends.
