During the 1992 U.S. presidential campaign, James Carville, a strategist for Bill Clinton, famously stated that the election would hinge on economic issues. Fast forward to 2024, and similar concerns are relevant for U.S. diplomats aiming to reinforce America's leadership in East Asia and the Pacific.

Countries in this region face security threats from China's ambitions and North Korea's nuclear activities. However, economic issues remain paramount. "Beijing is not wasting the opportunity to attempt to fill the vacuum being created by America’s diminishing leadership on trade issues in Asia," states Ryan Hass, Director at the John L. Thornton China Center.

This context partly explains why there is ambivalence about the U.S. presidential election outcome in Asia compared to Europe, where anxiety over Donald J. Trump's potential return is more pronounced due to his skepticism of NATO.

Hass notes that during recent travels across Asia-Pacific as part of a Chatham House-led mission, he observed less anxiety about the U.S. election among officials and business leaders than might be expected. "Nobody I spoke with described the U.S. election as representing a fork in the trajectory of the region’s relationship with the United States."

The guarded ambivalence stems from concerns about America's focus on great power competition with China rather than leading on regional trade and economic issues. Neither Trump nor Harris has clearly articulated their vision for American leadership in Asia on these matters.

America's current policies are seen as benefiting itself more than its partners through initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act, which encourage Asian firms to invest in U.S.-based production.

"American officials’ pledges...have been described by Asian counterparts as self-serving justifications for Washington’s current policy course," Hass observes.

Meanwhile, China is aggressively supporting its companies in emerging technologies like electric vehicles and clean energy, creating competitive pressures for other countries' manufacturers.

Regional governments are expected to navigate between aligning with either America or China based on specific issues rather than forming fixed blocs.

The upcoming U.S. presidential transition presents an opportunity for Washington to address these dynamics and enhance its role in Asia's economy strategically.

"The next administration should seize this opportunity...to advance an affirmative vision for how America will contribute to elevating prosperity across the Asia-Pacific region," concludes Hass.