Tensions in the Taiwan Strait remain high, with Taiwan often at the center of attention as a target of the People's Republic of China (PRC). The PRC has developed significant military capabilities that pose a potential threat to the island, but there is no indication that Xi Jinping has set a date for any military action. Analysts suggest that Xi may still hope for a resolution that avoids military conflict.
Taiwan continues to face an ongoing campaign from Beijing aimed at undermining public confidence without resorting to violence. Despite these challenges, the island maintains significant ways to support itself and counter Chinese efforts. Taiwan’s society remains resilient, with substantial economic strengths, particularly in the information technology and semiconductor sectors.
Since Mao Zedong’s death in 1976, Chinese leaders have sought to incorporate Taiwan into their system, favoring peaceful means when possible. The "One Country, Two Systems" formula proposed by Beijing has been consistently rejected by Taiwan, as it raises concerns about democratic restrictions and loss of political freedoms. Opinions on how to handle China's pressure differ within Taiwan, with the Kuomintang (KMT) supporting economic engagement to deter aggression and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) arguing for deterrence through reliance on U.S. military support.
Taiwan’s economic power, particularly in its IT sector led by companies like TSMC, provides leverage but also presents challenges. While these assets may encourage China to pursue unification through negotiation rather than force, Taiwan also faces difficulties such as the need for job creation outside the tech industry and external risks like potential tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump.
The island's security relationship with the United States serves as a crucial factor deterring Chinese aggression. The U.S. provides advanced weapons and military training to Taiwan while maintaining a policy of strategic ambiguity, aiming to prevent any unilateral changes in the status quo by either side. Since 2008, Taiwan has approached relations with China cautiously, a strategy continued by DPP President Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai has emphasized that Taiwan will not give in to pressure from the PRC but will also avoid rash moves, even with U.S. support. Public preference for maintaining the status quo has played a significant role in shaping this balanced policy.
Democratization in Taiwan has empowered the public to influence negotiations with Beijing, making it harder for China to achieve unification on its terms. However, developing a unified strategy remains challenging, as political divisions persist. Achieving consensus among Taiwan’s parties on critical policies related to security, economics, and relations with China is essential to prevent internal disagreements that could benefit Beijing. Experts like Richard C. Bush from the Brookings Institution have noted that the stakes are high, and Taiwan must remain united to safeguard its interests.
