The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index saw an increase of 2.2 points in October, reaching 93.7. Despite this rise, the index has remained below the 50-year average of 98 for 34 consecutive months. The Uncertainty Index climbed seven points to a record high of 110. A net negative 20% of small business owners reported higher nominal sales over the past three months, marking the lowest point since July 2020.
"Small business optimism rose in October in the face of persistent challenges, and Main Street continues to grapple with inflation and uncertainty," said NFIB New York State Director Ashley Ranslow. "Despite the uptick in optimism, NFIB’s Uncertainty Index rose to a record high in October, reflecting mixed economic indicators and a highly contested election."
Key findings from the report indicate that a seasonally adjusted net negative 20% of owners reported higher nominal sales in recent months, dropping three points from September and matching lows not seen since mid-2020. Compensation adjustments were also noted; a net 31% reported raising compensation, down one point from September.
Expectations for real sales volumes increased by five points to a net negative 4%, marking the highest reading this year. Additionally, there was a decrease in loan rates paid by owners on their most recent loans.
Job openings remain a significant issue as well, with thirty-five percent of owners reporting unfilled positions—a slight increase from September's figures.
Capital outlays have seen some activity with fifty-four percent of owners making expenditures over six months. Plans for future capital outlays are also up slightly.
Inflation continues to be cited as a primary concern by twenty-three percent of business owners due to rising input and labor costs.
Price hikes were frequent across various sectors including finance and retail, though reports showed varied results concerning profit trends among businesses.
Lastly, financing remains relatively stable as only two percent reported unsatisfied borrowing needs while twenty-three percent had all credit needs met.
The NFIB Research Center has been gathering data on small business economic trends through quarterly surveys since late 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. This latest survey was conducted in October 2024.
