President-elect Donald Trump, having secured victory in the 2024 election, has signaled a potential shift in U.S. policy towards Taiwan. His administration appears open to revising longstanding policies in response to China's increasing pressure in the Taiwan Strait.
The core of America's strategy has been maintaining peace and stability across the Strait. The United States aims to facilitate peaceful resolution of differences between China and Taiwan without resorting to violence or coercion. Washington's role is seen as that of a principled arbiter, countering threats from either side that could destabilize the region.
The Trump administration should maintain that Taiwan's legal status remains unresolved, an important distinction for international strategy. If accepted globally as unresolved, Taiwan becomes a matter of international peace rather than an internal Chinese issue.
The "One China" policy has historically acknowledged Beijing's claim over Taiwan without acceptance. However, if Beijing continues misrepresenting this stance, Washington might emphasize its approach as guided by a "cross-Strait policy."
U.S. defense commitments include unofficial relations with Taiwan and providing defensive arms under the Taiwan Relations Act. These commitments have been pivotal since 1979.
Leaders from both sides recognize challenges to the status quo but disagree on their origins. While Beijing views Taipei's actions as provocative, Taipei sees Beijing's military pressure as destabilizing.
Former President Joe Biden publicly stated U.S. support for Taiwan against Chinese aggression but did not significantly alter America's strategic posture due to other global conflicts.
Trump’s unpredictability could serve U.S interests by maintaining dual deterrence without specifying intervention conditions in cross-Strait conflicts.
To counter China's non-violent coercion strategy, joint coast guard patrols or increased military presence with allies may be considered if pressures escalate around Taiwan.
Additionally, Trump's administration must address diplomatic narratives such as claims of an "Asian NATO," which Beijing uses to frame U.S.-Taiwan relations negatively.
Washington needs clear communication about its goals: preserving peace and stability while allowing for peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues endorsed by Taiwanese people through democratic means.
Ryan Hass emphasizes that any adjustments should reflect unwavering determination in protecting U.S interests while bolstering confidence and resilience in Taiwan amidst rising tensions.
