Daniel Bunn President and CEO at Tax Foundation | Twitter Website
The House Budget Committee has put forward a budget resolution that outlines significant tax and spending cuts over the next decade. The plan aims to extend provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and potentially implement further tax reductions. Using the reconciliation process, Republicans can pass this with their votes alone, given their narrow majority.
The resolution limits deficit increases from tax cuts to $4.5 trillion over ten years and mandates at least $1.2 trillion in spending cuts. It also targets a reduction in mandatory spending by $2 trillion within the same period, adjusting tax cut caps if these savings are not achieved. This approach could result in a budget deficit increase between $2.5 trillion and $3.3 trillion before considering economic growth impacts.
Specific committees are tasked with executing these spending cuts: Energy and Commerce ($880 billion), Education and Workforce ($330 billion), and Agriculture ($230 billion). Programs such as Medicaid, student loan relief, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program may face reductions. Conversely, the Judiciary, Armed Services, and Homeland Security Committees might see increased funding for immigration and defense priorities by up to $300 billion.
House lawmakers have set an annual economic growth target of 2.6 percent, emphasizing pro-growth reforms across taxes, spending, regulations, and policymaking areas. Reforms should aim for maximum long-term economic growth per dollar of revenue loss.
"Spending growth has far outpaced inflation," notes recent data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Current law projects federal spending will exceed 23 percent of GDP this year and reach 24 percent by 2032—levels previously seen only during major crises like World War II or financial meltdowns.
Research suggests that reducing deficits through spending cuts is less harmful economically than raising tariffs or taxes that affect marginal income rates. Studies show that while tariffs can generate revenue, they also disrupt trade relationships and supply chains.
Alberto Alesina's research across OECD countries highlights that transfer payment cuts have minimal impact on economic growth compared to government investment reductions or fiscal reforms based on tax hikes which often lead to recessions.
An analysis from the Mercatus Center examined fiscal adjustments in 26 countries from 1995 to 2018 found successful consolidations were more reliant on spending cuts than tax increases for reducing debt-to-GDP ratios effectively.
A considerable portion of current expenditures occurs through refundable tax credits within the tax code deserving reform scrutiny—amounting to about $3.6 trillion over ten years according to Treasury Department estimates—with substantial amounts attributed towards green energy incentives under legislation like Inflation Reduction Act alongside healthcare premium assistance credits under Affordable Care Act provisions among others needing reevaluation possibly aligning them towards effective pro-growth outcomes suggested within committee instructions potentially aiding effective implementation benefiting broader economic conditions overall eventually envisioned thereby stated purpose behind structured budgetary proposals advocated herein presented ultimately undertaken forward into practice duly proposed onward initiated accordingly envisioned finalized effectuated later onwards adopted thereafter enacted subsequent proceeding advanced successfully implemented finally realized achieved 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