Kerry Brown, a prominent scholar of Chinese studies and former British diplomat, has recently turned his attention to Taiwan with his latest book "Why Taiwan Matters: A Short History of a Small Island That Will Dictate our Future." In a discussion with Ryan Hass, Brookings Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies, Brown explored the potential for future conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the implications of 2027 as a possible turning point.
Brown's interest in Taiwan developed over years of engagement rather than deliberate study. "Since my first visit to Taiwan in 2000... I have taken an interest in the island," he explained. His book aims to understand both China’s and Taiwan’s perspectives on their relationship. Brown emphasizes that while many find aspects of Taiwanese politics and culture appealing, it is crucial to acknowledge China's firm stance on the island's status.
Brown argues that maintaining the current cross-Strait stalemate should be seen as positive. He believes any significant change could lead to instability: "Taiwan and China... are like two vast stones leaning against each other. Move one and the other tumbles." According to him, keeping this balance is essential despite differing objectives between both sides.
The conversation also touched on speculation about China's intentions towards Taiwan by 2027. Brown noted that actions such as unilateral declarations of independence by either side could provoke conflict but are unlikely at present. He referenced U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement affirming America's position against Taiwanese independence as consistent with longstanding policy.
Regarding Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's strategy of aligning with global democracies, Brown acknowledged its merits but warned against relying on figures pursuing personal agendas rather than constructive support for Taiwan.
Looking ahead, Brown expressed cautious optimism about long-term change between China and Taiwan. While acknowledging current tensions, he suggested that unforeseen developments might eventually lead to resolution: "We just have to preserve a space where... unexpected (and good) things can happen."
Both Kerry Brown and Ryan Hass continue their work at King's College London and The Brookings Institution respectively, contributing insights into cross-Strait relations amid evolving geopolitical dynamics.
