With the United States reducing its international aid, questions arise about whether China will step in to fill the gap. However, an analysis of China's foreign aid suggests it is unlikely to replace the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in this role.
China's foreign aid remains significantly smaller than that of the United States. Many misconstrue China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as foreign aid, but it largely comprises loans and investments rather than traditional aid. By 2023, BRI engagements totaled $1.053 trillion, with a substantial portion being commercial activities.
In contrast, USAID's budget for the 2023 fiscal year was approximately $42 billion, covering various sectors such as governance, humanitarian assistance, health, and infrastructure. Other U.S. departments also contribute to foreign assistance.
China's foreign aid from 2013 to 2018 amounted to around $42 billion, averaging $7 billion annually—just 14.6% of what the U.S. spent during the same period. A Ministry of Commerce report from 2024 estimated China's annual average aid at approximately $3.13 billion from 2013 to 2022.
The motivations behind Chinese and American aid differ significantly. China's foreign aid includes grants, zero-interest loans, and concessional loans aimed at infrastructure projects in developing countries. These loans often promote Chinese exports and are sometimes backed by recipient countries' natural resources.
China has not prioritized increasing its foreign aid despite the reduction in U.S. assistance. The country's economic challenges and strategic interests shape its approach to international support. For instance, discussions about aiding Syria or Afghanistan involve political considerations related to Uyghur militants.
In addressing global issues like food security or climate change, China prefers working through multilateral organizations rather than taking unilateral action or leading consortia of countries.
Even with limited assistance levels compared to the U.S., China may use this opportunity to portray itself favorably on the global stage while criticizing American withdrawal from international commitments.
"Yun SunNonresident Fellow - Global Economy and Development, Foreign Policy," said "the influence of Chinese political capacity-building projects could grow in recipient countries in the long run."
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