The Trump administration has twice increased tariffs on Chinese imports by 10%, citing China's role in supplying fentanyl precursors to the U.S. In response, Beijing has imposed export controls on critical minerals, levied tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, listed U.S. companies as unreliable entities, announced investigations into other U.S. firms, and filed a suit at the World Trade Organization.
Beijing's actions seem aimed at demonstrating resolve while keeping open the possibility of negotiations with the Trump administration. "Beijing does not want that—and more importantly, President Donald Trump, U.S. businesses, and U.S. consumers do not want that either," states Jonathan A. CzinMichael H., Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at the John L. Thornton China Center.
China's main goal is for the United States to stay out of its way as it gains power and influence. Beijing may seek to roll back competitive U.S. policies in three areas: investment scrutiny heightened during Trump's first term; technology restrictions expanded under Biden; and undermining U.S. security commitments in contested regions like Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
Xi Jinping might find advantages in negotiating with Trump's administration due to a historical imbalance where the U.S., despite prioritizing competition or cooperation with China, often seeks China's help on various issues such as North Korea's nuclear ambitions or Russia’s war on Ukraine.
"Xi can afford to drag out trade negotiations for as long as is needed," notes CzinMichael H., suggesting that Xi is aware Trump might want a deal before midterm elections next year.
Washington should follow four best practices: clarify key objectives; ensure national security remains non-negotiable; be prepared to walk away from negotiations if necessary; and leave detailed haggling to staff while maintaining direct communication between leaders.
"The risk for the administration is that...the United States gets a series of Chinese promises...much as Beijing promised when it entered the WTO," warns CzinMichael H., cautioning about protracted negotiations potentially leading nowhere meaningful before another cycle begins with a new administration.
