John Culver has joined the Brookings Institution as a nonresident senior fellow, effective from February 28, 2025. Culver’s background includes extensive experience in analyzing China, particularly its military. He previously served as the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia from 2015 to 2018 and was a recipient of several prestigious awards from the CIA.
In an interview, Culver discussed his unexpected journey to becoming an expert on China’s military, mentioning that he initially had no academic training on China. He cited a background in defense consulting and his early career experiences, eventually leading to a position analyzing Chinese ground forces.
John Culver noted that, since around 1996, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has evolved significantly. The transformation has turned it into a formidable adversary, especially with its precision theater strike and global surveillance capabilities. Where once U.S. conflict planning over regional disputes was straightforward, today China has developed the means to track U.S. military assets worldwide. According to Culver, the U.S. can no longer rely on deploying forces such as aircraft carrier strike groups without significant risk.
Culver pointed out that the PLA's advancements pose strategic challenges because many wars involving the United States would happen close to China's shores. He highlighted China’s industrial capacity as a significant advantage for the PLA. He also mentioned that the PLA is nearing parity with U.S. sea and air power technology, and has advantages in certain missile technologies.
Despite these strengths, Culver mentioned the PLA's vulnerabilities, especially its lack of recent combat experience and its untested capabilities in conducting complex, joint operations. He described the PLA’s reorganization efforts, which began in 2015 to address these challenges, as still a work in progress.
Regarding U.S. policy, Culver criticized the previous subdued approach to China's military rise and described the response since 2018 as overcompensating in adversarial rhetoric, but underperforming in addressing the military balance. He cautioned against actions that might provoke conflict, such as deploying U.S. forces to Taiwan or altering long-standing strategic positions.
Discussing the PLA’s perception by analysts, Culver expressed concern that some Western views might misinterpret China’s military intent. He warned against drawing parallels with the Cold War and suggested that Xi Jinping might not have full confidence in the PLA’s readiness for a conflict involving Taiwan.
Finally, Culver offered advice to those aspiring to become experts on the PLA, recommending critical reading and advising against certain shallow sources. He emphasized the value of learning Chinese and engaging with reliable scholarly works on the topic.
The Brookings Institution, through activities such as this discussion, seeks to maintain a high standard of independence and quality in its contributions to policy analysis.
