Timothy Gill, Vice President and Chief Economist of the American Financial Services Association (AFSA), said that the March employment report indicated a resilient labor market but cautioned about potential challenges following the recent tariff announcement. His remarks were made in a newsletter dated April 8.
"The latest employment report showed the labor market in good stead at the end of the first quarter," said Gill, Vice President, Research & Chief Economist. "Job growth was healthy, the unemployment rate remained within the range established over the last several months, and wage increases were contained. Whatever benefits they may bring in the long run, the short-term impact will be turmoil and uncertainty for the economy and a sharply increasing likelihood of recession."
According to the newsletter, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, exceeding expectations and nearly doubling the average gains from January and February. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, while the broader U-6 rate decreased to 7.9%. Average hourly earnings grew by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, indicating steady wage growth.
Reuters reports that in March 2025, the U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs, significantly surpassing economists' expectations of 135,000. This robust job growth occurred despite President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs, including a 10% baseline import tax and higher rates for certain countries. Economists expressed concerns that these tariffs could lead to supply chain disruptions, increased prices, and potential layoffs in the near future.
The Wall Street Journal found that the unemployment rate in March 2025 edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% in February. This slight increase was attributed to more individuals entering the labor force, reflecting growing optimism about job prospects. Despite this uptick, the unemployment rate remained within the range observed over previous months, indicating relative stability in the labor market.
Gill's LinkedIn profile states he is Vice President of Research and Chief Economist at AFSA with over 25 years of experience in economic analysis across major trade associations. He holds a Certified Business Economist credential and advanced degrees in economics from Miami University and John Carroll University.
