The U.S. Department of the Treasury has released its latest estimates for privately-held net marketable borrowing for the upcoming quarters of April to June 2025 and July to September 2025.
For the April to June 2025 quarter, the Treasury anticipates borrowing $514 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $850 billion. This figure is $391 billion higher than predictions made in February 2025. The discrepancy is primarily attributed to a lower starting cash balance and projected lower net cash flows, although these factors are partly offset by reduced Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions, which decreased by $60 billion. "Excluding the lower than assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $53 billion lower than announced in February," the report states.
For the July to September 2025 quarter, the expected borrowing is $554 billion, also assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion.
In the previous quarter, January to March 2025, the Treasury borrowed $369 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and concluded with a cash balance of $406 billion. This was in contrast to February estimates, which projected borrowing of $815 billion and an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion. The $446 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing primarily stems from a lower end-of-quarter cash balance. "Excluding the lower than assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $2 billion lower than announced in February," according to the Treasury.
Further insights on the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding will be disclosed at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, April 30, 2025.
