The U.S. Department of the Treasury has released updated estimates for its privately-held net marketable borrowing for the upcoming quarters. For the July to September 2025 period, Treasury projects it will borrow $1.007 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt, based on an expected end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion. This estimate is $453 billion higher than what was announced in April 2025, mainly due to a lower starting cash balance and anticipated lower net cash flows. If the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance is excluded, the current quarter’s borrowing estimate stands at $60 billion above April’s projection.
Looking ahead to October through December 2025, Treasury expects to borrow $590 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, also assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion.
For the previous quarter (April – June 2025), Treasury borrowed $65 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended with a cash balance of $457 billion. In comparison, April’s estimate had forecasted borrowing of $514 billion with an assumed closing cash balance of $850 billion. The difference of $449 billion resulted primarily from a lower end-of-quarter cash balance and higher net cash flows. Without considering the reduced closing cash balance, actual borrowing was $56 billion less than previously announced.
Additional details about Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be provided at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, July 30, 2025.
"Treasury expects to borrow $1.007 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion.[2] The borrowing estimate is $453 billion higher than announced in April 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows."
"During the October – December 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $590 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion."
"During the April – June 2025 quarter, Treasury borrowed $65 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $457 billion. In April 2025, Treasury estimated borrowing of $514 billion and assumed an end-of-June cash balance of $850 billion. The $449 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing resulted primarily from the lower end-of-quarter cash balance and higher net cash flows.Excluding the lower than assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $56 billion lower than announced in April."
Additional financing information related to these estimates will be made available as part of Treasury's regular quarterly refunding process.
